Well, as I predicted when I decided to forgo posting for sleep last night, I woke up to a new situation in the Russia/Georgia crisis, but things still aren’t on solid ground.  If you haven’t really heard about the situation, the BBC has a short summary, which they always do well.  Even shorter story: Two regions of Georgia want to break away.  The Georgian President pledged to get them back.  And sent in the army.  Russia then sent in their army.  And sent them past those regions into sovereign Georgian territory.  Eventually Sarkozy managed to get the two to sign on to a ceasefire after five days of intense fighting.

Here’s the fun part.  Three oil pipelines run through Georgia.  Need I elaborate on why this would be cause for concern?  One pipeline has been closed for repairs, another was closed in response to the fighting.  So only one is currently up and running.  So far, BP’s actions (they have a 30% stake in the pipeline) haven’t translated into higher prices at the pump, mainly because they time perfectly with a drastic reduction in American demand for oil.  We got lucky.

When I was talking about all the reasons to get off oil, including avoiding “pipeline politics“, I didn’t expect to see it all play out so soon in such a drastic way.  When I wrote, I was thinking about the Middle East, and the instability wrought by the American occupation of Iraq.  However, the fact that such an incident DID unfold in an unexpected area underscores the point even more.  Oil causes more problems than it solves.  Just to break it down in this particular instance:

1. Oil is one of the sources of Russia’s sudden resurgence of wealth, which has been quickly followed by a resurgence of their aggressive Eastern European politics
2. Georgia’s gamble has backfired, and now the instability generated in their country could cause investors to shy away.
3. If the closure of the second pipeline had not coincided with a decreased US demand, energy prices would have risen again.

So, in closing, I see the conflict in Georgia as a cautionary tale of what can happen when instability visits oil-producing nations, or other nations vital to the oil supply chain.  We got lucky that it didn’t play out into a disaster this time.  But why should we wait for such a crisis to play out.  If we take proactive steps to reduce our dependence on oil, then we will neutralize the threat that such regional conflicts pose to our global society.